Can Technology Fix the Cost Crisis in Healthcare and Education?

mashable infograph telemed
Most personal insolvencies these days are caused by expenses related to the two service industries we depend on the most in our modern society – healthcare and education. And not surprisingly some of the most disruptive technological and social innovations are happening in these two areas as well.

Much of the skyrocketing healthcare costs in the United States have been attributed to lack of preventative care. Obesity rates have climbed in response to insufficient physical exercise and nutritional ignorance or at least by our slant toward self-deluding eating habits. Health monitoring and simple checkups add to the costs and time spent in doctor’s offices.

The Quantified Self movement is a reaction to this problem by making healthier choices more compelling. Around 1000 health apps for phones and tablets are released every month. The frenzied following of gadgets like Fitbit and the growing use of game logic to stir motivation in various types of task performance and learning might continue to push down the now leveled off obesity rate. Not only do these user friendly doohickeys nudge people into eating correctly and exercising more, but they can also amass large amounts of health data, which I’m sure is attracting great attention from public health researchers. All this data dissemination can be a double-edged sword, or at least a sword that hang over you reminding you to never slack off (did someone mention higher stress levels?). Also I’m not sure to which degree use of this data is restricted by the HIPAA rules, but there might be legit purposes if it’s decoupled from personal identity information. With all this data private physicians, insurers and public services could better streamline their services to better serve individual and well as geographic regions and demographic strata.

There’s a similar revolution happening in education. With a pending student loan crisis (at least crisis for the debtors) and rumors of a student loan bubble, the sturdy ground under ivory towers are starting to shake. The longstanding notion that any education will pay off is losing steam and trust in the investment potential of student loans might be on track to where Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac were headed about a decade ago. Ownership does not always pay off – even if that ownership is a prestigious sheepskin diploma. But the alternative is no better. Refraining from pursuing an education might leave you debt free, but also put you in no position to compete outside of the narrowing and outsourced blue-collar job market. These limitations may bring just as much misery to the academically inclined as a hefty loan. Here is where the MOOC revolution comes in. The last couple of years have seen an astounding increase in freely available courses from institutions like Khan Academy (I retook the GRE test last year, depending fully on Khan to re-teach me the high school algebra I had forgotten!) as well as a cornucopia of individual courses from various stellar universities. Udacity, Coursera, edX and MITx are just the beginning. Some even offer college credits for some classes.

But even MOOCs have their limitations. One issue is the low completion rates. For some, ambition is only as high as the bar of entry, which in this case is no higher than filling out an online registration form. I would think the self-discipline these courses require is particularly problematic for younger students. There is also the absence of student collaboration and colloquium driven motivation that takes place in a brick-and-mortar institutions. Secondly, the courses offered are not full degrees resulting in graduation papers, but leaves the student with a ‘certificate of mastery’ at best. Some courses, especially the “introductory type” ones have a noticeable ‘freebie’ feel to them where you have to pursue full enrollment to really get somewhere. Then we’re back to point blank with high tuition costs.

For the MOOC experience to really catch on it needs better social infrastructure. It also should result in useful metrics and certifications to justify the time investment. The social part could possibly be overcome by meshing the MOOC phenomenon with the Quantified Self phenomenon. When will the Fitbit gadget get a brainy little brother called ‘Edubit’? It’s time to ‘socialify’ (is that a word?) and gamify the MOOC process.

Futurist Dr. Maria Anderson has an extraordinary vision for the future of learning. She wants to create a new ‘ecosystem’ for personalized learning, even a mentor driven certification process. She theorizes that this will start outside of the traditional educational sphere and then trickle in through the ivy covered (pay-) walls of traditional universities.  When learners find online material they want to learn they should be given the opportunity to re-engage with the material through a “Learn This” type button, borrowing from the same interactive tools we now use to ‘like’, ‘share’ and distribute over our social media networks. Dr. Anderson’s point is that we have vast access to information already. In fact we’re drowning in information. The challenges lie within systemizing it, internalizing it and receiving external validation for acquiring one’s expertise.

Please let her explain in her own words:

[Embed yotube clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5kAOE3x1aY]

We seem to be undergoing a trajectory of Moore’s Law (the idea that computing power doubles every other year) in education. The amount of knowledge we have to harness over our lifetime seems to multiply, but yet, the return on our educational investments continue to drop.

This might not be especially comforting for the many underemployed Millennials and Gen X’ers who are drowning in student loans. But it does open some new doors as education becomes less dependent on paying power. As with personal health management, the next step is to ensure that these new affordable tools for learning demonstrate lasting results. The way younger Millennials and Homelanders acquire skills and knowledge will bear witness to the longevity of these trends.

 Images: Mashable, Youtube

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Gamification – Learning is what happens when you play

 

PBS-Kids-LogoGamification is the new buzzword these days. But it’s far more than a fad. Gamification is pretty much the process of allowing learning and innovation to piggyback on people’s natural predilection for seeking enjoyment through play and skill mastery. Win-win in other words.

Earlier this year I attended two different events that prove games are moving way past the socially deviant designs that could thrive only in dark, adolescent boy’s rooms. First, I was invited to attend the launch of PBS KIDS‘s and CPB’s (Center for Public Broadcasting) “It All Adds Up” program. PBS, known to provide high-quality programming for children, has carried out a study revealing that young children are not receiving adequate support for learning early math skills. This deficit is particularly significant in lower-income families. Since math skills at kindergarten entry is an even stronger predictor of school achievement than reading skills, entertainment that fosters this ability early on could improve educational outcome later in life.

It All Adds Up seeks to correct this shortfall and help families and children build early skills in a fun, interactive way. The program contains an impressive number of pedagogically constructed, multiplatform games. Familiar characters like Curious George and Cat in the Hat guide children and their parents through colorful obstacles that require mental skills to solve. The wide variety of games can be selected based on age, skill type, show or character, and device type. On October 7th PBS will also launch their new characters PEG + CAT aimed at preschoolers.

I tested these games on my 6-year old kindergarten twins. I was surprised when they said that they are already using these games at school during free center time! The variety alone put these games above the earlier Nickelodeon games their older sister used to play on desktop computers only a few years ago. With the almost 3 month long summer break coming up, these (free) games will be downloaded to our household’s electronic devices to sneak in some math and literacy training.

The second event that improved my knowledge on games and what it means for learning is a conference I recently attended in Orlando, Florida. I am a member of Association of Professional Futurists (APF), and gamification was the theme of this year’s annual conference. APF members working for Disney helped set this up and brought us to Institute for Simluation and Training at University of Central Florida. Here we learned how high-risk professions such as firefighters and police officers get their training. Fire fighters learn how to put out a fire based on the color of the smoke, location of the fire, material of the building and the airflow. Policemen learn car chases, which in a simulator is a far cry from car chases you see on film! Simulators are expensive, but the cost effectiveness of simulation training is obvious. Simulation training is so pervasive these days that next time you board an airplane there is actually a chance your pilot is lifting a plane of the ground for the first time! Scary thought, huh?

But simulation or gaming is also useful for more theory driven education, innovation and even scenario building. This last part tends to rouse futurists. You can learn about evolution and how color-coded Pac-Man looking “species” adapt to changing environmental conditions. These changes, that in nature take millions of years, are made possible by using dynamic software. By slightly changing the initial parameters, you can get widely different results. This part reminded me of the system dynamic models I used as a grad student, but is of course visually much more interesting.

The last day of my conference we learned from presentations and workshops facilitated by Starr Long and Dr. Mary Flanagan, two impressively experienced game developers who do deep dives into the psychology of gaming and, “gaming of psychology”. In stark contrast to the notorious videogames that nurture pubertal anti-social fantasies like Mortal Kombat, Dr. Flanagan uses games to understand social norms and how they change over time. Through gaming she is able to reveal idiosyncrasies, children’s relationship toward intrinsic vs. extrinsic motivations and other psychological experiments that are hard to replicate outside of a gaming context. What surprised me was that most of the games she introduced to us were of the old-fashioned board game type, not the typical screen games that you would expect.

Which sort of brings me to a conclusion. Gaming has been around at least since Backgammon 5000 years ago. With 10 million players worldwide currently playing World of Warcraft, gaming is definitely not on the endangered species list. What seems to have changed is the interface used for gaming and the number of players. The number of players a game can accommodate has vastly increased from being limited to how many can sit around a table to the number of people with internet access. Yet by virtualizing the game experience the very act of gaming has become a rather unsocial experience, at least if physical proximity to people and tangible objects count. This leads to questions as to which degree interactive multiplayer games like SimCity build civic skills and how to deal with real natural disasters or if it mainly alienates people from the real world.

I wonder if the rise in interest for gaming these days is the confluence of two trends that only seem to be intrinsically connected. One is the amplification and aesthetical enhancement of digital games. A distinct other variable is that scientists and educators are starting to exploit the game logic’s full potential, the idea that games are particularly useful for crowdsourcing knowledge work or to facilitate learning experiences. When these two trends interact you get a generation so immersed in it that they sometimes forget the real world. In this context the true meaning of the word ‘play’ is radically transformed and more often associated with electronic play rather than that which takes place with pebbles and horseshoes. Insert a third variable, the “dangerification” of the great outdoors. This aspect warrants it’s own post, but suffice it to say, kids are given decreasing access to outdoor play, especially unsupervised. The result is one we’re all aware of, the fact that kids spend way too much time with screens. So if educational games are to be useful and not contribute to game overload, they need to replace some of the time spent on ‘mindless’ games rather than simply add to the total screen time. And that’s where I think we’ll hit a problem. Educational games will have to compete with other, potentially more addictive ones. Will they succeed?

Images: PBS, YouTube

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The Great Gatsby and Beyond

I want to see The Great Gatsby. And then I hope Hollywood will churn out ‘Grapes of Wrath’ and ‘Death of a Salesman’ soon after. History rhymes, and once again we’re at this junction in time when the younger generations are reexamining the validity of the American Dream. The millennials were taught to believe in pep-talk and the ‘sky is the limit’ type motivational speeches instead of hard statistical realities, like the fact that their student loans would one day eat their lunch. “Everything is possible if you just believe in yourself” was well-meaning advice during the roaring ‘90s, but as they say – the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Will younger cohorts change the American Dream from one of ownership and status symbols to one of access and participation? The guys at Shareable.net think so. More to come on the “sharing economy” in the near future when I interview Neal Gorenflo.

Image: Sustainablespu

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Homelanders – Our Youngest Generation

shadow father daughter Wait, what? There’s a generation after the Millennials?

It’s not that long ago since I used to be asked this question. But lately awareness around this new generation seems to have grown, possibly because most people and companies figure that the oldest Millennials are all grown up they and not exactly “news” anymore (despite what Time Magazine seems to think). Over the last couple of months I have witnessed quite a rise in google searches around “Homeland generation”  and “homelanders”. (Aha, we’re getting somewhere!) But Homelander is just one of several name suggestions for this youngest cohort. And to me none of them sound particularly good.

boy binochularsHomeland generation was coined after a contest among the readers of Neil Howe’s website in 2005. I personally think there’s a very strong 9/11 flavor over the Homelander term. It seems a bit anachronistic if the event that kicked off this generation’s childhood era (Fourth Turning) was the great recession, not 9/11.

Depending on how you slice the generational categories, you might call them Generation Z, in which case they are now entering their teen years, Gen Z assumed to have started somewhat earlier between 1995 and 2000 (vs. New Silent/ Homelander 2004/05). The least appropriate name I’ve heard is iGeneration, alluding to their supposed preference for the Apple brand. If kids today really would have fit that label it would have indicated that they are the mesmerized Steve Jobs worshippers, not their parents. Of course it’s the opposite that is true because kids now a days are actually ditching Apple for Microsoft. Just because you find a kid transfixed on an apple embellished device, don’t assume they are “iSheep“. They most likely inherited the device after a parental upgrade. Again we tend to run into anachronistic labels if we borrow trends from the present in order to envision the zeitgeist of the future.

girl green bckgrIt’s a pretty established idea that you can’t assess a generation until they’ve already entered their formative years. The early 20th century sociologist Karl Mannheim and other generational scholars often state that identity formation happens during adolescence and that children are not exposing the traits they will inhabit as adults. Hence some are reluctant to speculate about the future character trait of a generation that is still mostly only children. I both agree and disagree with this stipulation. I agree that you cannot predict the exact characteristics of a future adult generation. In fact you can’t predict anything at all. However, I do believe that you can make forecasts and scenarios based on theory, generational archetypes, trends and driving forces in society, and documented childhood experiences of those who are children today.

I don’t only think we could make some forecasts. I think we should. Because if we don’t try to anticipate them now, we will be less able to understand them and meet their needs in the future. And we will permanently lag behind.

Can you afford to lag behind?

Images: stock.xchng 

 

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Young and Famous in 2030 – a Scenario

2280592833_9d8943037dSorry Kitty is lead singer of the K-pop band Saccharine.

Her nickname is a blend of Super Junior’s 2009 hit Sorry, Sorry and the still popular cartoon Hello Kitty. She earned it for her allegedly sad expression as a child, but later made it her legal name as a provocative statement of Asian pride. While Korean women in the entertainment industry undergo canthoplasties and other plastic surgeries too look “less Asian”, Sorry embraces her Asian features and is unknowingly signaling a new trend that will unfold after her career takes off in 2030.

Sorry grows up as an only child of a Korean PR professional and Tigermother and a British DJ and sound engineer who moved to Korea to work as an English teacher when the job market dried up in Europe.

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Toxic Children

breastfeeding

A baby nursing at mother’s breast will ingest a better concoction of vitamins, sugars, essential minerals and proteins than Purina Petfood could ever dream of providing for the world’s most pedigreed show dogs. Baby will also benefit from enzymes and antibodies that can ward off ailments ranging from nasty infections to cancer. Mixed in with all the good stuff, baby will also be fed trace amounts of paint thinners, dry-cleaning fluids, wood preservatives, toilet deodorizers, cosmetic additives, gasoline byproducts, rocket fuel, termite poisons and flame-retardants. These were the results when Florence Williams sent off a sample of her breastmilk to a lab in Germany. Then she wrote a book about it.

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Happy Earth Day! Is the Homelanders / GenZ/ iGeneration also the Re-Generation?

Earth - IllustrationI just read an article that called our youngest generation the “re-generation” (sorry, can’t find the url), alluding to their familiarity with the reduce, reuse, recycle slogan and their attentiveness to environmental causes. I haven’t found any hard statistics that actually support the idea that the Homelanders will be more environmentally conscious, but OK, I’ll go with the idea that environmentalism is since environmentalism is gradually entering into our psyches over time a sense of urgency and importance might be greater among the young. One thing I learned from judging at the Texas Future Problem Solvers competition this weekend is that the fervent climate change deniers and “drill, baby, drill” knuckleheads are not making inroads into the mindset of the young. From my own experience it does indeed seem as if ‘Reduce, Reuse and Recycle’ resonate on a much deeper level and are more actionable and instinctive with our the youngest cohorts.

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Report From the Future Problem Solvers competition in Texas

fpspiI just got back from judging in the state competition for Future Problem Solvers. The Future Problem Solving Program was founded by creativity pioneer, Dr. E. Paul Torrance. Future Problem Solving Program International (FPSPI) and stimulates critical and creative thinking skills, encourages students to develop a vision for the future, and prepares students for leadership roles. The finalists in the state competition go on to the International competition, so this is a big deal!

There is no doubt the next generation of problem solvers are well prepared and versed in the newest sciences and most critical challenges the world faces.

This year’s topic was the problem with oceanic plastic soup. I judged the intermediate level, 7-9th graders from various schools in Texas, and they were all impressive! The students were to come up with creative and fairly reasonable solutions to the probem and act out their action plan dramatically. They know nothing about the topic until the same day and are given limited props for their skit. All aspects are evaluated.

Some students imagined biological solutions involving converting plastic particles into biodegradable components – even entering back into the oceanic food chain in the form of plankton. Some chose robotic solutions, where robotic fishes were to swim and collect the debris and bring it in for reprocessing into energy. Some had more mechanical solutions such as sifting the contaminated water where the toxins and plastics are collected and the water cleansed.

All contestant groups were well prepared, intelligent, humorous and vastly talented on so many levels! Being a judge and singling out only one winner team was incredibly difficult.

If you are unfamiliar with ‘plastic soup’ and what harm it does for sea life, here’s a primer.

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Mirror Mirror, Facebook’s Wall, Who’s the Fairest of them All?

This article was first published 3/28/2013 by NewSavvyProduction.

fb mirror pic

“Hey guys. I just wanted to ask – just a random question. Uhmm. Am I -  like – ugly or pretty?”

-  You don’t have to dig deep into online archives to find a whole pageantry of kids as young as 10 years old unloading their most personal angst for complete strangers to comment on. And the more insecure they appear, the more likely they seem to attract trolls whose dubious netiquette allows them to filter through comments of this type: “DONT WANT TO SOUND MEAN BUT URE A F***ING DOG.” (censoring added). In other words, the ones who most desperately need reassurance from their faceless peers are the ones who are the most likely get bulldozed by the ‘Haters’. And rarely do any respondents care to unmask the more existential questions that simmer immediately underneath the Snow White narrative: “Am I likeable? Am I loveable?” Continue reading

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Consumer reviews going one step further – haul videos


Screen shot 2013-03-17 at 10.55.29 AMHaul videos
is the latest craze in You Tube videos. It’s pretty much the internet equivalent of girls chatting about their latest shopping loot.

I decided to write a post on haul videos for three reasons. For one thing they signal the confluence of various trends that interest me as a futurist, which I will dwell on in this post. Secondly, when I don’t blog I work with user generated content for Bazaarvoice, so I see the enormity of consumer reviews on a daily basis. Thirdly, I have a preeteen daughter and have seen the pull these girl created instructional videos have on her and her friends. Personally I think these You Tube hits look incredibly boring and don’t quite see the allure, but in a world saturated with advertisement and questionable forms of consumer seduction, I see this is the equivalent of the trusted older cousin coming back to show her finds after a shopping spree. Very innocuous in other words.

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